Guidelines on Management of Problem Loans

Stages of EWS Process 1. Identification: Early warning signs are indicators that point to potential payment difficulties. These indicators could be alienated into five broad categories: i. Economic environment, ii. Financial indicators, iii. Behavioral indicators, iv. Third-party indicators, and v. Operational indicators. The main aim of this list is to produce a comprehensive set of signals that provides the bank an opportunity to act before the borrower’s financial condition deteriorates to the point of default. Each of these categories has been explained below from sections “i to v”. It is the responsibility of the unit/section assigned for managing EWS process to interpret the signals received from a borrower and determine whether that borrower should be included in the watch list (prepared on the basis of EWS) for further corrective action. In most cases, such a decision will involve the identification of groups of signals that validate one another. Taken alone, individual indicators can be too ambiguous/inconclusive to predict financial distress, but when a holistic approach is adopted the unit/ section responsible for managing EWS, may decide that the combination of certain signs anticipates serious financial distress. Determining what combination of signs, that will trigger the scenario to classify the borrower as watch list, requires adequate knowledge of the industry and will involve some subjective judgment as well. In most cases, the specialized unit will have to identify very subtle warning signs that reinforce others in arriving at a judgment. These subtle signs might be based also on personal contacts between the bank and the borrower, especially in the context of medium-size enterprises. For example, a trigger for the transfer to the watch list could be a signal received from only one substantial indicator, such as Debt/ Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to be above 5 (the aforementioned example has been included for clarity purposes only and; should not be viewed as SAMA’s interpretation of the given financial ratio). However, the transfer may also be triggered by the combination of less significant indicators, e.g., an increase in the general unemployment rate, increase in days of receivables outstanding, or frequent changes of suppliers. In addition, signals received from at least two less significant indicators could trigger a deeper review of the borrower’s financial health. The bank may expand the list of substantial indicators based on the findings from the analysis of the historical data and backtesting results. For the purpose of simple EWS approach (using one or multiple indicators with specific thresholds), the bank should define trigger points for creating signals based on good practice and analysis of historical data. In case of availability, a differentiation between the thresholds for different economic sectors would be a good practice. The bank should apply a prudent approach when selecting specific thresholds for particular indicators. Criteria for the inclusion in the watch list should be applied at the individual level or at a portfolio level. For example, if real estate prices fall by more than 5 percent on an annual basis, for the group of loans that have real estate as collateral a review should be performed to determine if the collateral value is adequate in the light of price adjustment or not. Collateral evaluation should be done in accordance with SAMA Guidelines. In cases the collateral is no longer sufficient, a bank should take corrective action to improve collateral coverage. An additional factor that should be considered in managing EWS is the concept of materiality. For this reason, a bank may define a level of average loan size in the NPL portfolio, determine that all loans above this indicator are material, and require more attention from the bank. The main principle behind this concept is to give a higher level of attention, scrutiny, and